Thu, Nov 28, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
New Jersey Devils 6, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 211 | 211 | 213 | 635 |
| MTL | 118 | 217 | 113 | 448 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:19NJDBlake ColemanAssists: Nikita Gusev, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 7:41MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Phillip Danault, Tomas Tatar · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 8:17NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Nikita Gusev, Blake Coleman · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 1:40MTLJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Max Domi, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 3:16NJDMiles WoodAssists: Pavel Zacha, Will Butcher · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P2 9:02MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Victor Mete, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 11:28NJDJesper BoqvistAssists: Nico Hischier, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–3
- P3 8:21NJDDamon SeversonGWGAssists: Nikita Gusev, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–3
- P3 8:37MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Mike Reilly, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.27 xG5–4
- P3 18:44NJDBlake ColemanENAssists: Travis Zajac, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.66 xG6–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:45MTLMike Reilly: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:50MTLJeff Petry: Holding2 min
- P1 19:33NJDJack Hughes: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:45NJDDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:57MTLJoel Armia: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Hall – Hischier9:31
xG 0.78–0.58 (57%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Zajac – Coleman – Gusev10:46
xG 0.71–0.52 (58%)attempts 11–23goals 3–0
- Simmonds – Boqvist – Hughes6:06
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Hall – Hughes2:50
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTennyson – Butcher11:30
xG 1.22–0.61 (67%)attempts 18–13goals 3–0
- Greene – Severson14:43
xG 0.54–0.81 (40%)attempts 14–24goals 2–1
- Subban – Vatanen12:45
xG 0.77–1.26 (38%)attempts 11–22goals 0–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Weal – Hudon6:54
xG 0.58–0.23 (72%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Cousins – Armia – Kotkaniemi8:07
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 14–5goals 1–1
- Lehkonen – Domi – Suzuki9:32
xG 0.52–0.49 (52%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault11:05
xG 0.74–1.00 (43%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Reilly2:50
xG 0.83–0.17 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Petry – Mete13:42
xG 0.67–0.53 (56%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Reilly – Kulak7:29
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).