Fri, Nov 29, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Colorado Avalanche 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 37 | 27 | 09 | 523 |
| CHI | 110 | 119 | 07 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:59COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: J.T. Compher · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 3:17COLRyan GravesAssists: Matt Nieto, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 9:14CHIZack SmithAssists: Ryan Carpenter · Snap, 0.25 xG2–1
- P1 12:20COLCale MakarPPGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 9:45COLValeri NichushkinUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG4–1
- P2 11:26COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–1
- P2 19:56CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews, Brandon Saad · Backhand, 0.19 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:25COLRyan Graves: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:25CHIAndrew Shaw: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:09CHIErik Gustafsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:26CHIErik Gustafsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:05COLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:32CHIAndrew Shaw: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:32CHIAndrew Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:32COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDonskoi – Nieto – MacKinnon12:17
xG 1.08–0.54 (67%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Nichushkin – Bellemare – O'Connor13:10
xG 0.46–0.23 (66%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Kadri – Compher – Jost12:24
xG 0.30–0.78 (27%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Tynan – Kamenev – Dries8:46
xG 0.09–1.20 (7%)attempts 4–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Graves – Makar12:55
xG 0.54–0.51 (51%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Zadorov – Girard17:11
xG 0.60–0.66 (48%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Cole – Rosen13:37
xG 0.44–0.77 (36%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Saad – Nylander10:34
xG 0.86–0.32 (73%)attempts 17–4goals 0–2
- Kane – Carpenter – DeBrincat8:45
xG 0.39–0.19 (68%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Carpenter – Highmore2:57
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Dach7:06
xG 0.18–0.25 (41%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – de Haan11:03
xG 0.99–0.38 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Maatta – Gustafsson5:08
xG 0.34–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Gustafsson5:47
xG 0.29–0.09 (76%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).