Fri, Nov 29, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Ottawa Senators 2, Minnesota Wild 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 19 | 113 | 013 | 235 |
| MIN | 010 | 317 | 48 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:37OTTNick PaulAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Mark Borowiecki · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 9:43MINRyan DonatoUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 10:37OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Connor Brown, Logan Brown · Slap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 11:05MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Eric Staal · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 13:56MINZach PariseGWGAssists: Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 4:34MINLuke KuninAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Jared Spurgeon · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 6:32MINRyan HartmanAssists: Jonas Brodin · Snap, 0.04 xG2–5
- P3 10:50MINEric StaalPPUnassisted · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–6
- P3 11:38MINJason ZuckerAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:37OTTFilip Chlapik: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:39OTTVladislav Namestnikov: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:56MINJonas Brodin: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:18MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:18OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:33OTTColin White: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – White – Tkachuk2:55
xG 0.14–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pageau – Paul – White8:50
xG 0.39–0.28 (59%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- White – Brown – Tkachuk2:01
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Ennis – Tierney – Chlapik5:44
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Brannstrom11:26
xG 0.58–0.28 (67%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev2:18
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – DeMelo4:25
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestRask – Hartman – Donato11:06
xG 0.87–0.19 (82%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Kunin10:48
xG 0.40–0.37 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Staal – Zuccarello – Zucker11:18
xG 0.35–0.58 (38%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Fiala11:01
xG 0.27–0.58 (32%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon15:35
xG 0.93–0.40 (70%)attempts 20–15goals 4–0
- Hunt – Soucy12:40
xG 0.67–0.45 (60%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba17:11
xG 0.40–0.70 (36%)attempts 17–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).