Fri, Nov 29, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 13 | 016 | 112 | 231 |
| CBJ | 113 | 311 | 16 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:21CBJGustav NyquistAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 17:57PITJake GuentzelAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Dominik Simon · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 0:26CBJNick FolignoUnassisted · Snap, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 2:52CBJGustav NyquistPPGWGAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Zach Werenski · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 15:09CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 5:20PITKris LetangAssists: Jake Guentzel, Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 19:01CBJGustav NyquistENAssists: Josh Anderson, David Savard · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:30PITSam Lafferty: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:19PITDominik Kahun: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:06CBJJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:45PITJake Guentzel: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:20CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:11PITAlex Galchenyuk: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:10CBJSonny Milano: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:50CBJGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Malkin – Guentzel – Simon13:29
xG 0.73–0.77 (49%)attempts 17–9goals 2–2
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese7:12
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – McCann – Kahun12:53
xG 0.18–0.52 (25%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino5:07
xG 0.18–0.03 (88%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Trotman3:18
xG 0.01–0.02 (38%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Trotman – Pettersson8:00
xG 0.10–0.23 (31%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Atkinson – Wennberg8:10
xG 0.65–0.12 (84%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Nash – Texier – Bemstrom7:15
xG 0.45–0.05 (91%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Anderson – Milano – Dubois9:59
xG 0.55–0.24 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Jenner – Bjorkstrand10:29
xG 0.46–0.51 (48%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski13:13
xG 0.80–0.29 (74%)attempts 10–9goals 2–1
- Savard – Murray15:48
xG 0.84–0.68 (55%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Kukan – Gavrikov14:28
xG 0.38–0.23 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).