Fri, Nov 29, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Nashville Predators 3, Carolina Hurricanes 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 213 | 17 | 08 | 328 |
| CAR | 012 | 09 | 010 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:15NSHRocco GrimaldiGWGAssists: Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–0
- P1 17:55NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Filip Forsberg · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 3:28NSHAustin WatsonAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Matt Duchene · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:35CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:18NSHColton Sissons: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:14NSHDaniel Carr: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:53CARJake Gardiner: Interference2 min
- P3 2:59CARJake Gardiner: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:16NSHAustin Watson: Elbowing2 min
- P3 17:20CARJoel Edmundson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Johansen – Forsberg8:02
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Bonino – Smith – Grimaldi8:14
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
- Watson – Sissons – Olivier6:25
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Carr8:04
xG 0.29–0.66 (30%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Weber9:09
xG 0.92–0.30 (75%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Josi – Ellis12:45
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Ekholm2:02
xG 0.07–0.12 (36%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMartinook – McGinn – Bishop6:16
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov10:04
xG 0.83–0.47 (64%)attempts 17–3goals 0–1
- Staal – Niederreiter – Foegele10:31
xG 0.23–0.53 (30%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Dzingel – Wallmark – Necas7:21
xG 0.04–0.54 (6%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Fleury12:15
xG 0.93–0.39 (71%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Hamilton – Slavin15:02
xG 0.85–0.48 (64%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Pesce9:31
xG 0.37–0.48 (44%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).