Sat, Nov 30, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 212 | 19 | 11 | 429 |
| MTL | 19 | 120 | 113 | 00 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Victor Mete · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 7:47PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Justin Braun, Jakub Voracek · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 8:14MTLTomas TatarAssists: Shea Weber, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–2
- P2 8:59PHIKevin HayesAssists: Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 1:34PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Claude Giroux, Michael Raffl · Snap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 3:16MTLTomas TatarPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 0:31PHIIvan ProvorovGWGAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:18PHIPhilippe Myers: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:18MTLMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:34PHITravis Sanheim: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:05PHIIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:08MTLTomas Tatar: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Kotkaniemi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Laughton – Farabee10:05
xG 0.59–0.07 (90%)attempts 15–4goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Pitlick – Frost2:03
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Pitlick – Raffl6:02
xG 0.05–0.24 (18%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Raffl – Konecny5:02
xG 0.12–0.35 (25%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Provorov – Myers2:15
xG 0.05–0.12 (30%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Myers11:53
xG 0.31–0.47 (39%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Provorov18:34
xG 0.52–0.73 (41%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault11:03
xG 0.91–0.18 (83%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Cousins – Armia – Kotkaniemi9:07
xG 0.56–0.41 (58%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Armia – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi2:26
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Thompson – Weal – Lehkonen2:04
xG 0.08–0.01 (85%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Chiarot4:46
xG 1.16–0.26 (82%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Weber – Mete7:10
xG 0.55–0.13 (81%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Fleury6:09
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).