Sat, Nov 30, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Ottawa Senators 1, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 09 | 18 | 127 |
| CGY | 18 | 07 | 212 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:56CGYDillon DubeUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 14:49OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 15:50CGYElias LindholmGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 18:26CGYElias LindholmENAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:48OTTArtem Anisimov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:17OTTMark Borowiecki: Interference2 min
- P2 18:30CGYAndrew Mangiapane: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:46OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – Chlapik – Beaudin6:43
xG 0.83–0.07 (93%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Tierney – White – Tkachuk8:06
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 14–3goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Namestnikov – Duclair8:13
xG 0.76–0.47 (62%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Pageau – Brown – Paul12:00
xG 0.42–0.38 (52%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot11:21
xG 0.88–0.06 (93%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev7:51
xG 0.84–0.35 (70%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Brannstrom5:46
xG 0.40–0.09 (82%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk13:18
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan13:00
xG 0.61–0.62 (49%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube11:46
xG 0.47–0.62 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Frolik – Rieder – Jankowski8:42
xG 0.41–1.00 (29%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Stone – Kylington12:00
xG 0.56–0.57 (49%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Hanifin – Andersson18:01
xG 0.83–1.14 (42%)attempts 15–20goals 0–1
- Giordano – Brodie17:40
xG 0.67–1.09 (38%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).