Sat, Nov 30, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 217 | 213 | 18 | 538 |
| EDM | 17 | 115 | 08 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:31VANTyler GraovacPPAssists: Tanner Pearson, Adam Gaudette · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 13:32VANTanner PearsonSHAssists: J.T. Miller · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 14:14EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ethan Bear, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 5:05EDMZack KassianAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 13:47VANTanner PearsonGWGAssists: Bo Horvat, Quinn Hughes · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 18:04VANLoui ErikssonAssists: Bo Horvat, Tanner Pearson · Snap, 0.21 xG4–2
- P3 1:21VANJosh LeivoAssists: Bo Horvat, Jake Virtanen · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:04EDMZack Kassian: Charging2 min · PPG
- P1 12:03VANLoui Eriksson: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:01EDMMarkus Granlund: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:40VANTyler Graovac: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:30VANAdam Gaudette: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:13EDMEthan Bear: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Pettersson10:47
xG 1.19–0.13 (90%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Pearson – Horvat9:09
xG 0.76–0.33 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
- Leivo – Horvat – Virtanen2:28
xG 0.34–0.08 (82%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Graovac – Schaller – MacEwen4:28
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes11:07
xG 1.13–0.30 (79%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hughes2:05
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev10:10
xG 0.34–0.27 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Russell – Haas6:11
xG 0.21–0.05 (81%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Neal – Gagner – Chiasson10:40
xG 0.46–0.34 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Archibald – Khaira10:22
xG 0.27–0.67 (29%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid13:55
xG 0.32–1.54 (17%)attempts 7–23goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Larsson10:19
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Russell – Jones4:55
xG 0.19–0.07 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom4:59
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).