Sun, Dec 1, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 08 | 18 | 111 | 01 | 2 | 228 |
| MIN | 011 | 16 | 19 | 03 | 3 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:43MINKevin FialaPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise · Tip-in, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 15:28DALJohn KlingbergPPAssists: Esa Lindell, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 14:09DALBlake ComeauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 17:30MINZach ParisePPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Jared Spurgeon · Backhand, 0.22 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Zach Parise scored
- 2. DAL Joe Pavelski scored
- 3. MIN Kevin Fiala scored
- 4. DAL Tyler Seguin scored
- 5. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 6. DAL Alexander Radulov stopped
- 7. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
- 8. DAL Corey Perry stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:56DALJamie Oleksiak: Holding2 min
- P1 12:53MINRyan Donato: Holding2 min
- P2 7:45MINJason Zucker: Interference2 min
- P2 12:31DALJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:33MINRyan Donato: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:17DALAlexander Radulov: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Janmark – Dickinson8:35
xG 0.25–0.04 (86%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Gurianov11:37
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa8:01
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin12:05
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell14:25
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen14:02
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Oleksiak2:42
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zuccarello – Zucker12:45
xG 0.66–0.54 (55%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Foligno – Hartman – Donato7:20
xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Kunin10:16
xG 0.01–0.02 (35%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Fiala10:37
xG 0.02–0.41 (4%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba19:36
xG 0.59–0.36 (62%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Hunt – Soucy9:41
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon16:06
xG 0.08–0.30 (22%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).