Sun, Dec 1, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 3, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 18 | 18 | 112 | 328 |
| VAN | 113 | 111 | 08 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:09EDMJosh ArchibaldAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 15:34VANBrock BoeserAssists: Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 12:06VANJosh LeivoAssists: Jordie Benn, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–2
- P2 13:51EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Alex Chiasson · Deflected, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 0:46EDMLeon DraisaitlPPGWGAssists: James Neal, Alex Chiasson · Slap, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:06EDMEthan Bear: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:54EDMConnor McDavid: Holding2 min
- P2 13:24VANLoui Eriksson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:47VANLoui Eriksson: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Archibald – McDavid9:43
xG 0.55–0.09 (86%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Gagner – Khaira – Draisaitl8:11
xG 0.22–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Granlund – Russell – Haas6:14
xG 0.16–0.03 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Sheahan – Nygard4:24
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear15:04
xG 0.75–0.32 (70%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Larsson – Klefbom13:33
xG 0.21–0.31 (40%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Benning – Jones3:29
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Leivo – Virtanen – Gaudette2:35
xG 0.03–0.02 (68%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Pearson – Horvat3:57
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson9:44
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Leivo – Pearson – Horvat2:09
xG 0.03–0.13 (18%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Benn – Stecher2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes12:26
xG 0.49–0.52 (48%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Stecher – Fantenberg5:39
xG 0.06–0.12 (32%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).