Mon, Dec 2, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New Jersey Devils 1, Buffalo Sabres 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 121 | 018 | 145 |
| BUF | 515 | 28 | 09 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:46BUFJack EichelAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 4:59BUFJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 6:57BUFConor ShearyAssists: Jeff Skinner, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–3
- P1 16:41BUFConor ShearyAssists: Johan Larsson, Jake McCabe · Snap, 0.02 xG0–4
- P1 19:02BUFRasmus AsplundAssists: Casey Mittelstadt · Snap, 0.07 xG0–5
- P2 4:40BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Brandon Montour, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.06 xG0–6
- P2 8:10NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Sami Vatanen, Nikita Gusev · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–6
- P2 12:08BUFHenri JokiharjuPPAssists: Victor Olofsson, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.05 xG1–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:44NJDBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:02BUFZemgus Girgensons: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:22NJDP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:22BUFColin Miller: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:31BUFZemgus Girgensons: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:06NJDKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:14BUFBrandon Montour: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:01BUFHenri Jokiharju: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Wood – Rooney10:30
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Hischier – Boqvist9:17
xG 0.34–0.21 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Gusev8:01
xG 0.33–0.22 (59%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Hall – Zacha – Bratt10:02
xG 0.20–0.68 (23%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Severson6:27
xG 0.36–0.12 (76%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Tennyson – Butcher13:58
xG 0.71–0.53 (57%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Greene – Subban7:14
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLarsson – Skinner – Sheary7:50
xG 0.84–0.10 (89%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel9:51
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Girgensons – Sheary – Asplund2:16
xG 0.05–0.00 (95%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Johansson – Vesey – Mittelstadt11:46
xG 0.13–0.67 (16%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Montour6:00
xG 0.45–0.06 (89%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Scandella – Jokiharju7:15
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen5:54
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).