Tue, Dec 3, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Minnesota Wild 4, Florida Panthers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 05 | 29 | 212 | 426 |
| FLA | 213 | 019 | 014 | 246 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:54FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 14:26FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Frank Vatrano · Snap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 9:26MINJason ZuckerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 12:56MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Brad Hunt, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 4:49MINCarson SoucyGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Victor Rask · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 18:59MINLuke KuninENAssists: Jonas Brodin · Slap, 0.47 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:47MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:03MINJordan Greenway: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 12:03FLAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:29MINMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Koivu – Parise – Fiala7:21
xG 0.15–0.29 (33%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Kunin10:25
xG 0.15–0.46 (24%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Foligno – Rask – Hartman7:56
xG 0.05–0.37 (13%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Zuccarello – Zucker11:14
xG 0.22–1.16 (16%)attempts 6–20goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Hunt2:51
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon2:05
xG 0.10–0.06 (64%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Brodin – Hunt5:02
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov13:14
xG 0.73–0.22 (77%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Toninato – Acciari9:55
xG 0.55–0.25 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Connolly – Trocheck – Malgin8:19
xG 0.31–0.04 (89%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Boyle – Hoffman – Vatrano5:31
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad16:00
xG 0.89–0.29 (75%)attempts 21–7goals 0–1
- Stralman – Weegar17:25
xG 1.16–0.88 (57%)attempts 19–23goals 0–1
- Weegar – Ekblad2:25
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).