Tue, Dec 3, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Vegas Golden Knights 4, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 07 | 110 | 313 | 430 |
| NJD | 117 | 111 | 17 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:31NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Damon Severson, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 5:24VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Alex Tuch, Tomas Nosek · Slap, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 14:17NJDJesper BrattAssists: Damon Severson, Pavel Zacha · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 1:05VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: William Karlsson, Reilly Smith · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 5:04VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Deryk Engelland, Alex Tuch · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 9:40VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPGWGAssists: Alex Tuch, Reilly Smith · Backhand, 0.26 xG4–2
- P3 10:00NJDNico HischierAssists: Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:33NJDAndy Greene: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 11:26VGKWilliam Carrier: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:26NJDWill Butcher: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:26VGKWilliam Carrier: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:17VGKJonathan Marchessault: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 8:59NJDDamon Severson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:15NJDKyle Palmieri: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:29
xG 0.60–0.33 (64%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Stone10:35
xG 0.73–0.59 (55%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
- Reaves – Stephenson – Nosek6:31
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Carrier – Tuch – Glass8:47
xG 0.10–0.16 (39%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt15:55
xG 1.03–0.58 (64%)attempts 16–13goals 0–2
- Engelland – Merrill10:54
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Theodore – Hague15:54
xG 0.69–0.76 (47%)attempts 10–21goals 2–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Hall – Zacha – Bratt9:07
xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Zajac – Coleman – Gusev8:56
xG 0.60–0.59 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Wood – Rooney7:50
xG 0.29–0.28 (50%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Hall – Hischier3:18
xG 0.14–0.15 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Butcher4:07
xG 0.47–0.12 (80%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Greene – Butcher2:25
xG 0.31–0.02 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Greene – Vatanen3:32
xG 0.23–0.07 (78%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).