Tue, Dec 3, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Nashville Predators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 13 | 115 | 010 | 13 | 331 |
| NSH | 013 | 111 | 17 | 01 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:46TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Steven Stamkos, Tyler Johnson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 6:13NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 6:44TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 9:51NSHKyle TurrisPPAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 2:35TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Mikhail Sergachev · Deflected, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 11:27TBLCarter Verhaeghe: Interference2 min
- P2 0:13TBLNikita Kucherov: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:53TBLLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:53NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:10NSHRyan Johansen: Elbowing5 min
- P2 9:10NSHRyan Johansen: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 4:01NSHMathieu Olivier: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:59TBLErik Cernak: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P3 13:01TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:01NSHDante Fabbro: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:01TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:03NSHNick Bonino: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Point10:53
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Johnson – Cirelli9:52
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Maroon – Gourde – Paquette8:27
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Sergachev4:13
xG 0.39–0.04 (90%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Hedman8:19
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 10–3goals 2–0
- Sergachev – Rutta4:37
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Jarnkrok – Forsberg3:48
xG 0.21–0.02 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Bonino – Smith – Grimaldi7:25
xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Turris – Sissons – Carr2:56
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Forsberg4:46
xG 0.13–0.17 (45%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Fabbro14:47
xG 0.84–0.44 (66%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Irwin6:27
xG 0.04–0.23 (15%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis15:15
xG 0.41–0.67 (38%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).