Tue, Dec 3, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Ottawa Senators 2, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 016 | 112 | 114 | 242 |
| VAN | 415 | 06 | 18 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:50VANAntoine RousselAssists: Adam Gaudette · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 4:28VANTanner PearsonAssists: Chris Tanev · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 13:58VANElias PetterssonPPGWGAssists: Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–3
- P1 17:23VANZack MacEwenAssists: Jordie Benn, Chris Tanev · Deflected, 0.13 xG0–4
- P2 11:59OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 0:40OTTTyler EnnisAssists: Thomas Chabot, Colin White · Deflected, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 7:34VANOscar FantenbergAssists: Jake Virtanen, Adam Gaudette · Slap, 0.01 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:28VANTanner Pearson: Interference2 min
- P1 13:13OTTDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:35VANChris Tanev: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P3 1:59OTTErik Brannstrom: Delaying game2 min
- P3 12:34VANBrock Boeser: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Duclair – Tkachuk6:58
xG 1.22–0.56 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Brown – Paul – Brown3:47
xG 0.22–0.05 (83%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Namestnikov – White8:48
xG 0.33–0.38 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Pageau – Brown – Paul4:15
xG 0.08–0.13 (37%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev2:29
xG 0.67–0.03 (96%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Chabot15:19
xG 0.71–0.62 (53%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Brannstrom9:44
xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 8–4goals 0–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Virtanen – Gaudette9:51
xG 0.81–0.31 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Leivo – Pearson – Horvat10:39
xG 0.86–0.57 (60%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Schaller – MacEwen6:41
xG 0.22–0.01 (94%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson13:59
xG 0.37–1.02 (27%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStecher – Fantenberg17:03
xG 0.77–0.71 (52%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Benn – Tanev14:35
xG 0.94–1.23 (43%)attempts 13–15goals 2–1
- Myers – Hughes15:30
xG 0.78–1.10 (41%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).