Wed, Dec 4, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Ottawa Senators 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 04 | 311 | 210 | 525 |
| EDM | 110 | 19 | 07 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:09EDMJujhar KhairaAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 5:15OTTArtem AnisimovPPAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Colin White · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 5:27OTTConnor BrownAssists: Chris Tierney, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 11:42OTTTyler EnnisGWGAssists: Connor Brown, Dylan DeMelo · Snap, 0.38 xG3–1
- P2 17:37EDMOscar KlefbomPPAssists: Sam Gagner, James Neal · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 1:30OTTAnthony DuclairAssists: Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–2
- P3 11:47OTTVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Chris Tierney, Tyler Ennis · Snap, 0.19 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:57OTTVladislav Namestnikov: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:09OTTBrady Tkachuk: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 17:20EDMAdam Larsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:15EDMJujhar Khaira: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:12OTTBrady Tkachuk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:12OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:44EDMLeon Draisaitl: Holding2 min
- P3 16:34OTTNikita Zaitsev: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:49OTTRon Hainsey: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 18:38OTTDylan DeMelo: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Brown – Tkachuk3:26
xG 0.64–0.22 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ennis – Namestnikov – Tierney2:02
xG 0.42–0.01 (98%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Ennis – Tierney – White2:25
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Pageau – Duclair – Tkachuk4:59
xG 0.00–0.39 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – DeMelo3:40
xG 1.11–0.06 (95%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev2:16
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Lajoie3:09
xG 0.02–0.03 (38%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Khaira – Draisaitl7:46
xG 0.48–0.11 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Neal – Archibald – McDavid6:34
xG 0.41–0.09 (83%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Granlund – Russell – Haas9:15
xG 0.45–0.12 (78%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Sheahan – Nygard5:57
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Persson12:04
xG 0.55–0.24 (69%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bear13:12
xG 0.54–0.61 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Nurse – Persson2:38
xG 0.07–0.33 (18%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).