Thu, Dec 5, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Boston Bruins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 28 | 012 | 110 | 11 | 431 |
| BOS | 012 | 010 | 318 | 00 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:14CHIRyan CarpenterSHAssists: Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 18:51CHIDylan StromePPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Patrick Kane · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 0:17CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dylan Strome, Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 1:49BOSJoakim NordstromAssists: David Backes, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 15:01BOSChris WagnerSHAssists: Sean Kuraly, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 17:27BOSTorey KrugAssists: Jake DeBrusk · Slap, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 0:54CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Connor Murphy · Backhand, 0.24 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:33CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:35CHIAnton Wedin: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:41BOSDavid Pastrnak: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:53CHIAlex Nylander: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:35CHIAlex Nylander: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:58BOSDavid Pastrnak: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:46BOSJohn Moore: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:46CHIZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:40BOSCharlie Coyle: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Strome – DeBrincat12:56
xG 0.71–0.39 (65%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Toews – Saad – Nylander8:17
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Kubalik – Kampf – Wedin6:32
xG 0.11–0.23 (33%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Carpenter – Dach6:58
xG 0.16–0.33 (32%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Murphy4:09
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- de Haan – Gustafsson2:02
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Murphy – Koekkoek11:08
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Nordstrom – Lindholm5:24
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – DeBrusk8:38
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Heinen11:03
xG 0.53–0.69 (43%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Wagner – Kuraly – Bjork11:12
xG 0.10–0.42 (19%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – McAvoy4:51
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo2:31
xG 0.00–0.01 (23%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo9:04
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).