Thu, Dec 5, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Minnesota Wild 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 39 | 15 | 17 | 521 |
| TBL | 213 | 18 | 113 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:52TBLErik CernakAssists: Brayden Point, Andrei Vasilevskiy · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 9:33MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Jordan Greenway, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 10:46MINJason ZuckerAssists: Eric Staal, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P1 11:14MINCarson SoucyAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jonas Brodin · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–1
- P1 15:57TBLMikhail SergachevAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Cedric Paquette · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 18:47TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 19:23MINVictor RaskAssists: Kevin Fiala, Carson Soucy · Backhand, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 4:00TBLAlex KillornAssists: Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 4:08MINMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Jason Zucker, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:27TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:25MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:36TBLLuke Schenn: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:31MINNick Seeler: Interference2 min
- P2 17:48MINRyan Hartman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:33MINKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:33TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:14MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Paquette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Staal – Zuccarello – Zucker9:38
xG 0.25–0.34 (42%)attempts 7–10goals 3–2
- Parise – Fiala – Kunin7:51
xG 0.06–0.16 (26%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Foligno – Rask – Donato7:09
xG 0.32–0.43 (43%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Hartman – Greenway – Eriksson Ek8:36
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Hunt5:27
xG 0.40–0.12 (76%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Brodin – Soucy17:13
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 13–13goals 4–1
- Suter – Dumba18:15
xG 0.31–1.21 (20%)attempts 12–24goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Point10:41
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Maroon – Gourde – Paquette6:19
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Johnson – Cirelli8:06
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- Killorn – Paquette – Joseph2:34
xG 0.05–0.01 (86%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Sergachev9:50
xG 0.38–0.10 (80%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Hedman – Cernak2:59
xG 0.21–0.04 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – McDonagh2:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).