Thu, Dec 5, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Winnipeg Jets 2, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 015 | 213 | 02 | 238 |
| DAL | 114 | 116 | 03 | 16 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:27DALJamie BennPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 9:25DALDenis GurianovAssists: Corey Perry, Jason Dickinson · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 1:38WPGBlake WheelerSHAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Tucker Poolman · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 19:15WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Patrik Laine, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 2:02DALJoe PavelskiPPGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:10WPGAnthony Bitetto: Holding2 min
- P1 16:22WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:22DALBlake Comeau: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:03WPGPatrik Laine: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:00DALBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:37WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:37WPGMark Scheifele: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:19DALAndrej Sekera: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:05DALAndrej Sekera: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 1:31WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Lowry – Copp9:00
xG 0.51–0.04 (93%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Roslovic7:24
xG 0.47–0.58 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Laine12:55
xG 0.85–1.05 (45%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Copp – Ehlers2:07
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Pionk15:26
xG 1.13–0.48 (70%)attempts 24–13goals 0–0
- Poolman – Morrissey13:44
xG 0.61–0.56 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Bitetto – Beaulieu8:25
xG 0.20–1.09 (16%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Dickinson – Gurianov5:35
xG 0.81–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa7:11
xG 0.67–0.09 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Janmark – Hintz7:56
xG 0.44–0.17 (73%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Benn – Dowling – Seguin5:28
xG 0.26–0.67 (28%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Klingberg13:56
xG 0.94–0.45 (68%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Oleksiak2:14
xG 0.22–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Polak – Oleksiak10:46
xG 0.88–0.75 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).