Fri, Dec 6, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
Washington Capitals 3, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 112 | 115 | 19 | 336 |
| ANA | 014 | 18 | 17 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:00WSHTravis BoydAssists: Carl Hagelin, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 5:10WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: John Carlson, Jakub Vrana · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 17:03ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 0:45ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Ondrej Kase · Other, 1.00 xG2–2
- P3 1:37WSHJakub VranaGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 18:08WSHCarl Hagelin: Interference2 min
- P2 2:12ANASam Steel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 4:54ANAErik Gudbranson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 4:54WSHGarnet Hathaway: Misconduct10 min
- P2 4:54ANAErik Gudbranson: Misconduct10 min
- P2 8:17WSHRadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:17ANANicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:17ANANicolas Deslauriers: Misconduct10 min
- P2 9:06ANACam Fowler: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:36WSHT.J. Oshie: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:40WSHJonas Siegenthaler: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:06WSHGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:06ANAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:39WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:39ANADerek Grant: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Eller – Vrana11:00
xG 0.67–0.28 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Panik – Boyd8:18
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Dowd – Leipsic – Hathaway5:53
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson12:11
xG 0.28–1.61 (15%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Siegenthaler11:35
xG 1.24–0.78 (61%)attempts 5–18goals 1–0
- Orlov – Jensen16:03
xG 1.10–0.83 (57%)attempts 17–19goals 1–0
- Carlson – Kempny12:51
xG 0.54–1.30 (29%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Rakell – Steel9:47
xG 0.66–0.32 (67%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Henrique – Kase3:40
xG 0.20–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase4:04
xG 0.17–0.06 (74%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Rowney5:15
xG 0.28–0.25 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Lindholm13:28
xG 0.74–0.42 (64%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Fowler2:24
xG 0.21–0.03 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Guhle2:02
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).