Sat, Dec 7, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Ottawa Senators 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 19 | 111 | 110 | 330 |
| PHI | 26 | 08 | 27 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:45PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Morgan Frost, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 4:27OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Connor Brown · Snap, 0.37 xG1–1
- P1 6:16PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Tyler Pitlick, James van Riemsdyk · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 13:18OTTAnthony DuclairSHUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 3:17PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Joel Farabee, Scott Laughton · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 15:00OTTAnthony DuclairAssists: Thomas Chabot, Dylan DeMelo · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 15:11PHIScott LaughtonGWGAssists: Kevin Hayes, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.32 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:07PHIJustin Braun: Interference2 min
- P1 18:43PHIJakub Voracek: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:43OTTNick Paul: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:19PHIJoel Farabee: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:19OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:19PHIKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:19OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:36PHIIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:35OTTBrady Tkachuk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:35OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Brown – Tkachuk11:29
xG 0.89–0.28 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Ennis – Tierney – Duclair2:00
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ennis – Namestnikov – Tierney6:17
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Paul – Brown – Davidsson2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot15:22
xG 0.83–0.27 (76%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – DeMelo3:06
xG 0.37–0.04 (91%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Goloubef – Borowiecki9:07
xG 0.12–0.12 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Couturier – Lindblom2:04
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Giroux – Pitlick – Frost3:04
xG 0.09–0.02 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Pitlick – Vorobyev2:52
xG 0.10–0.04 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Frost3:17
xG 0.11–0.17 (41%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Myers11:42
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Provorov17:26
xG 1.09–0.92 (54%)attempts 17–11goals 2–1
- Braun – Sanheim13:07
xG 0.08–0.74 (10%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).