Sat, Dec 7, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Buffalo Sabres 5, Vancouver Canucks 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 05 | 315 | 28 | 00 | 528 |
| VAN | 19 | 210 | 29 | 12 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:57VANJosh LeivoAssists: Jordie Benn, Troy Stecher · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 3:07VANAntoine RousselAssists: Tyler Myers, Jake Virtanen · Backhand, 0.27 xG0–2
- P2 5:24BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Johan Larsson, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 6:28BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Victor Olofsson · Snap, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 17:11VANJosh LeivoAssists: Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 19:16BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 4:51VANTyler MyersAssists: J.T. Miller, Tanner Pearson · Snap, 0.24 xG3–4
- P3 10:40VANAntoine RousselPPAssists: Jake Virtanen, Troy Stecher · Snap, 0.52 xG3–5
- P3 12:05BUFZemgus GirgensonsSHAssists: Johan Larsson · Backhand, 0.03 xG4–5
- P3 19:01BUFMarcus JohanssonAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Ristolainen · Deflected, 0.01 xG5–5
- OT 3:21VANJ.T. MillerPPGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser · Slap, 0.07 xG5–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:01BUFKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:12VANJake Virtanen: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:51VANJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:50VANQuinn Hughes: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:35VANAntoine Roussel: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:09BUFHenri Jokiharju: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Skinner – Asplund9:36
xG 0.55–0.35 (62%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons8:14
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel13:37
xG 0.38–0.52 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Vesey – Sheary – Mittelstadt6:28
xG 0.03–0.34 (8%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Jokiharju11:14
xG 0.59–0.33 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Bogosian – Jokiharju2:33
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Montour13:41
xG 0.39–0.61 (39%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Virtanen – Gaudette8:50
xG 1.07–0.34 (76%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson10:11
xG 0.15–0.04 (79%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Beagle – Ferland – Schaller7:31
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Leivo – Pearson – Horvat11:54
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes17:59
xG 1.42–0.31 (82%)attempts 23–8goals 2–1
- Stecher – Fantenberg12:09
xG 0.65–0.16 (80%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Benn – Tanev12:58
xG 0.12–0.89 (11%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).