Sat, Dec 7, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Minnesota Wild 2, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 110 | 07 | 224 |
| CAR | 212 | 215 | 213 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:21MINRyan DonatoAssists: Marcus Foligno, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 9:00CARLucas WallmarkAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 15:02CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 4:43CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Nino Niederreiter · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 9:08MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 15:15CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jordan Staal · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 12:24CARJoel EdmundsonAssists: Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.02 xG2–5
- P3 18:39CARSebastian AhoENAssists: Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.58 xG2–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:10MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:10MINJordan Greenway: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:25CARJaccob Slavin: Interference2 min
- P2 9:30CARLucas Wallmark: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 14:30MINKevin Fiala: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:54CARLucas Wallmark: Interference2 min
- P3 17:09CARClark Bishop: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Hartman – Donato4:28
xG 0.34–0.05 (86%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Foligno – Rask – Hartman4:33
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Parise – Fiala – Donato6:06
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Zuccarello – Zucker10:52
xG 0.91–0.97 (48%)attempts 9–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Soucy17:17
xG 0.82–0.46 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Seeler – Hunt9:53
xG 0.11–0.35 (23%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
- Suter – Dumba18:02
xG 0.85–1.56 (35%)attempts 13–25goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Foegele – Svechnikov11:10
xG 0.74–0.20 (79%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Dzingel – McGinn – Wallmark10:27
xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Teravainen – Aho9:48
xG 0.70–0.70 (50%)attempts 17–6goals 2–1
- Gibbons – Martinook – Bishop8:39
xG 0.18–0.58 (24%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin15:28
xG 0.94–0.69 (58%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Gardiner – van Riemsdyk12:27
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Pesce17:09
xG 0.67–1.13 (37%)attempts 16–12goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).