Sat, Dec 7, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New Jersey Devils 4, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 211 | 112 | 110 | 433 |
| NSH | 213 | 212 | 212 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:46NSHDaniel CarrAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Yannick Weber · Deflected, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 2:13NSHDante FabbroAssists: Nick Bonino, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 2:45NJDJesper BrattAssists: Pavel Zacha, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 3:59NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Nikita Gusev, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 5:52NSHYakov TreninAssists: Rocco Grimaldi · Slap, 0.32 xG2–3
- P2 7:24NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–4
- P2 13:07NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 5:47NSHNick BoninoGWGAssists: Dante Fabbro, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 11:09NJDTaylor HallAssists: Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.38 xG4–5
- P3 12:44NSHRocco GrimaldiAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:39NSHYannick Weber: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 10:12NJDNikita Gusev: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:29NJDP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:32NSHDante Fabbro: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:47NJDMiles Wood: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:01NJDBlake Coleman: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 10:06NSHRyan Johansen: Interference2 min
- P2 12:15NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:42NJDBlake Coleman: Holding2 min
- P3 19:13NJDJesper Boqvist: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rooney won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Coleman – Gusev10:24
xG 0.67–0.28 (71%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Palmieri – Hall – Hughes11:21
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Zacha – Bratt – Boqvist7:24
xG 0.09–0.53 (15%)attempts 3–8goals 1–2
- Simmonds – Wood – Rooney7:43
xG 0.27–0.72 (27%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Severson11:57
xG 0.76–0.51 (60%)attempts 14–6goals 2–1
- Severson – Butcher2:42
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Greene – Subban12:22
xG 0.54–1.02 (35%)attempts 10–21goals 0–3
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Johansen – Forsberg10:43
xG 1.02–0.24 (81%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Bonino – Smith – Grimaldi5:38
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 3–0
- Bonino – Watson – Sissons2:40
xG 0.04–0.04 (53%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Watson – Sissons – Trenin7:15
xG 0.10–0.14 (41%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro3:17
xG 0.43–0.06 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Weber9:33
xG 0.58–0.22 (72%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Josi – Ellis14:52
xG 0.83–0.47 (64%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).