Sat, Dec 7, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Los Angeles Kings 3, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 28 | 011 | 114 | 333 |
| CGY | 112 | 210 | 18 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:09LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 14:43LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 18:14CGYMilan LucicPPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Derek Ryan · Slap, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 3:01CGYZac RinaldoAssists: Dillon Dube, Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P2 11:46CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 1:29CGYDillon DubePPGWGAssists: Derek Ryan, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–4
- P3 5:24LAKMatt RoyAssists: Nikolai Prokhorkin, Trevor Lewis · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:03CGYTobias Rieder: Interference2 min
- P1 12:40LAKBlake Lizotte: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:30CGYMikael Backlund: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:48LAKMichael Amadio: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:25CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:07LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 17:07CGYZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:07LAKKyle Clifford: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 17:07CGYZac Rinaldo: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 9:06LAKTrevor Lewis: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:35LAKTyler Toffoli: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Clifford – Prokhorkin2:52
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 10–1goals 0–1
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo10:30
xG 0.24–0.26 (47%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Amadio8:56
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Kempe – Wagner – Lizotte9:14
xG 0.26–0.81 (24%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Doughty – Ryan17:18
xG 0.49–0.96 (34%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Hutton – Roy16:23
xG 0.32–0.86 (27%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Ryan – Dube8:40
xG 0.74–0.23 (76%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk10:52
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Lucic – Gaudreau – Ryan3:14
xG 0.18–0.02 (88%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Frolik – Rinaldo – Rieder3:32
xG 0.09–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin17:03
xG 0.94–0.45 (67%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Stone – Brodie10:55
xG 0.87–0.54 (62%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
- Giordano – Andersson14:43
xG 0.40–0.10 (81%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).