Sun, Dec 8, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Anaheim Ducks 2, Winnipeg Jets 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 113 | 05 | 115 | 233 |
| WPG | 18 | 112 | 113 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:02WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 9:34ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 18:09WPGAdam LowryAssists: Andrew Copp, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 8:04ANADevin ShoreAssists: Troy Terry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 15:38WPGMark ScheifelePPGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:59WPGKyle Connor: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:43ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:51WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:51ANARyan Getzlaf: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:57ANAMaxime Comtois: Holding2 min
- P2 7:31ANANicolas Deslauriers: Holding2 min
- P3 15:15ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:14WPGAdam Lowry: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grant won the faceoff against Wheeler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Kase – Comtois9:38
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Shore – Terry9:43
xG 0.50–0.46 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Grant – Deslauriers – Rowney5:35
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Rakell – Steel8:34
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolzer – Del Zotto12:11
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Fowler – Gudbranson17:21
xG 0.61–0.63 (49%)attempts 16–23goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Mahura11:47
xG 0.51–0.53 (49%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Lowry – Copp10:28
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Roslovic11:14
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Shaw – Shore – Luoto3:22
xG 0.11–0.12 (47%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Laine14:44
xG 0.30–1.10 (21%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Sbisa – Pionk17:38
xG 0.49–0.49 (50%)attempts 23–8goals 0–1
- Poolman – Morrissey17:33
xG 0.69–0.73 (49%)attempts 21–18goals 1–1
- Bitetto – Beaulieu10:21
xG 0.21–0.59 (27%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).