Sun, Dec 8, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
San Jose Sharks 1, Florida Panthers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 012 | 010 | 131 |
| FLA | 212 | 110 | 211 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:31FLAKeith YandlePPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:15FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 10:13SJSKevin LabancPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Evander Kane · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 6:32FLAMike MathesonAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 10:19FLABrett ConnollyPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Keith Yandle · Backhand, 0.35 xG1–4
- P3 18:31FLAFrank VatranoENAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:04SJSKevin Labanc: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:57FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:16FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:16SJSEvander Kane: Instigator2 min
- P2 4:16SJSEvander Kane: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:16SJSEvander Kane: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 18:52FLAMike Hoffman: Interference2 min
- P3 0:34FLAAaron Ekblad: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:12SJSBrenden Dillon: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:12SJSBrenden Dillon: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Sorensen10:24
xG 1.17–0.45 (72%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Hertl – Labanc – Meier10:53
xG 0.42–0.16 (73%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Couture – Goodrow – Meier4:04
xG 0.23–0.03 (88%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Gregor – Gambrell8:43
xG 0.34–0.55 (38%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Karlsson12:32
xG 0.85–0.57 (60%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Dillon – Heed14:59
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Burns – Ferraro14:48
xG 0.52–1.14 (31%)attempts 14–24goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov11:28
xG 0.67–0.64 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Connolly – Trocheck10:29
xG 0.22–0.29 (43%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Vatrano – Acciari – Saarela9:28
xG 0.24–0.42 (37%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Boyle – Sceviour – Toninato10:44
xG 0.14–1.05 (12%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Brown12:09
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Weegar – Ekblad15:58
xG 0.56–0.58 (49%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ekblad2:09
xG 0.05–0.29 (15%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).