Sun, Dec 8, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Buffalo Sabres 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 211 | 04 | 06 | 11 | 322 |
| EDM | 010 | 212 | 06 | 00 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:08BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Marco Scandella · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 10:43BUFJohan LarssonAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Rasmus Asplund · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 8:25EDMRiley SheahanAssists: Joakim Nygard, Darnell Nurse · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 15:56EDMJoakim NygardPPAssists: Darnell Nurse, Gaetan Haas · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 1:13BUFColin MillerGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.36 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:22BUFBrandon Montour: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:42EDMMarkus Granlund: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:26EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:40BUFZach Bogosian: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 13:57BUFZach Bogosian: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:31EDMJoel Persson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Larsson – Girgensons9:23
xG 0.27–0.05 (85%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Vesey – Sheary – Rodrigues4:06
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel13:44
xG 0.50–0.53 (49%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Johansson – Skinner – Asplund6:50
xG 0.16–0.23 (42%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Jokiharju11:21
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Montour14:58
xG 0.69–0.55 (56%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Montour2:02
xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Nygard – Haas6:45
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Archibald – Granlund9:09
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Neal – Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira8:59
xG 0.24–0.49 (33%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid15:44
xG 0.50–1.13 (31%)attempts 11–23goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Klefbom – Persson13:27
xG 0.40–0.42 (49%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Russell – Larsson13:29
xG 0.33–0.72 (32%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
- Nurse – Bear16:41
xG 0.30–0.75 (29%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).