Mon, Dec 9, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 120 | 16 | 312 | 538 |
| WSH | 06 | 015 | 218 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:27CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Alexandre Texier · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 6:52CBJRyan MurrayAssists: Eric Robinson · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P3 0:40WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 6:53CBJRiley NashGWGAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 10:37CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Sonny Milano, Seth Jones · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 17:54WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.24 xG4–2
- P3 18:12CBJCam AtkinsonENAssists: Joonas Korpisalo · Wrist, 0.45 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:28WSHBraden Holtby: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:19WSHRichard Panik: Charging2 min
- P1 9:57CBJNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:26CBJOliver Bjorkstrand: Interference2 min
- P2 15:20CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:31WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:28WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:09WSHTom Wilson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Milano – Dubois9:38
xG 0.52–0.30 (63%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Nash – Wennberg – Robinson5:18
xG 0.19–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Anderson11:31
xG 0.30–0.14 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Atkinson – Texier9:13
xG 0.47–0.70 (40%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Peeke8:24
xG 0.61–0.11 (85%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Jones – Kukan13:20
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Savard – Murray13:42
xG 0.33–0.51 (40%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson11:04
xG 0.43–0.26 (63%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Eller – Panik8:50
xG 0.47–0.39 (55%)attempts 16–4goals 0–1
- Dowd – Leipsic – Hathaway5:51
xG 0.06–0.18 (24%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana9:07
xG 0.26–0.75 (26%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen11:09
xG 0.73–0.49 (60%)attempts 18–12goals 0–2
- Jensen – Siegenthaler3:17
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Gudas – Kempny3:42
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).