Mon, Dec 9, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 18 | 016 | 116 | 240 |
| OTT | 214 | 19 | 25 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:35OTTArtem AnisimovAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Thomas Chabot · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 15:44OTTAnthony DuclairAssists: Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 17:48BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 1:21OTTChris TierneyGWGAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 17:02OTTJean-Gabriel PageauENAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–4
- P3 17:45BOSJake DeBruskPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–4
- P3 19:59OTTAnthony DuclairENAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.64 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P2 2:33BOSCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:21OTTVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:08OTTDylan DeMelo: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:53OTTDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:35BOSBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:58OTTThomas Chabot: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:46BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:46OTTColin White: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Coyle – Ritchie – Bjork3:59
xG 0.08–0.06 (59%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Coyle – Heinen – Bjork2:12
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:46
xG 0.29–0.36 (44%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Wagner – Nordstrom – Kuraly7:07
xG 0.21–0.28 (42%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Grzelcyk8:25
xG 0.45–0.22 (68%)attempts 8–6goals 0–2
- Chara – Moore4:17
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Krug – Carlo9:18
xG 0.20–0.36 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Brown – Tkachuk10:26
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Paul – Brown – Davidsson4:27
xG 0.10–0.04 (73%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Ennis – White9:30
xG 0.40–0.39 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Tierney – Duclair8:46
xG 0.22–0.45 (33%)attempts 4–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Goloubef8:43
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Chabot13:58
xG 0.50–0.57 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
- Borowiecki – Zaitsev12:34
xG 0.15–0.28 (36%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).