Tue, Dec 10, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
San Jose Sharks 1, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 06 | 010 | 19 | 125 |
| NSH | 011 | 02 | 319 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 4:24NSHNick BoninoAssists: Mikael Granlund, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 12:59NSHRyan JohansenGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–2
- P3 18:02SJSTimo MeierAssists: Tomas Hertl, Kevin Labanc · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 19:18NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
Penalties (25)
- P1 0:47SJSBarclay Goodrow: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:05SJSMario Ferraro: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 12:51NSHFilip Forsberg: Interference2 min
- P1 12:51SJSMarcus Sorensen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 15:36NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:31NSHDante Fabbro: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:15NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:15SJSBarclay Goodrow: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:52NSHDante Fabbro: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:52SJSTimo Meier: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:34NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:58SJSEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:58NSHDan Hamhuis: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:58SJSEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:58SJSEvander Kane: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:58NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:58SJSEvander Kane: Misconduct10 min
- P2 19:58NSHAustin Watson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 2:03NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:03SJSBarclay Goodrow: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 8:29SJSErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:05NSHFilip Forsberg: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 12:19SJSBrent Burns: Elbowing2 min
- P3 12:59SJSNoah Gregor: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 13:34NSHFilip Forsberg: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against Goodrow
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Gregor – Gambrell4:42
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hertl – Labanc – Meier5:13
xG 0.25–0.04 (85%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Couture – Kane – Goodrow4:39
xG 0.01–0.11 (10%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Sorensen5:52
xG 0.13–0.32 (28%)attempts 1–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeed – Ferraro4:22
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Dillon – Ferraro2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Burns – Dillon5:43
xG 0.06–0.07 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Duchene – Granlund5:47
xG 0.25–0.14 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Watson – Sissons – Carr3:24
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Forsberg5:29
xG 0.06–0.19 (24%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Bonino – Smith – Grimaldi5:21
xG 0.14–0.42 (25%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Irwin6:46
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro5:58
xG 0.06–0.27 (17%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis7:44
xG 0.11–0.37 (23%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).