Tue, Dec 10, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Anaheim Ducks 3, Minnesota Wild 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 214 | 09 | 010 | 00 | 2 | 333 |
| MIN | 01 | 110 | 110 | 03 | 0 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:04ANARickard RakellAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Sam Carrick · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 10:23ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Ondrej Kase, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 7:59MINRyan HartmanAssists: Victor Rask, Marcus Foligno · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 2:03MINRyan DonatoAssists: Zach Parise, Kevin Fiala · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 2. ANA Rickard Rakell scored
- 3. MIN Kevin Fiala stopped
- 4. ANA Maxime Comtois scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:46MINMathew Dumba: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:05ANACarter Rowney: Interference2 min
- P1 16:04ANAKorbinian Holzer: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:04MINRyan Hartman: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:04ANADerek Grant: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:21MINMathew Dumba: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:34ANAHampus Lindholm: Holding2 min
- P3 4:35MINMathew Dumba: Interference2 min
- P3 14:55ANAHampus Lindholm: Playing without a helmet2 min
- OT 0:27ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carrick won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Carrick – Rakell10:31
xG 0.59–0.12 (83%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Henrique – Kase – Comtois7:09
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Shore – Terry9:58
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Grant – Deslauriers – Rowney7:58
xG 0.05–0.39 (12%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Gudbranson15:15
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm16:07
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 19–12goals 0–2
- Holzer – Del Zotto12:18
xG 0.20–0.35 (37%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Rask – Hartman8:05
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Parise – Fiala – Donato9:30
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Staal – Zuccarello – Zucker2:39
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Kunin3:48
xG 0.03–0.21 (13%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHunt – Menell8:34
xG 0.50–0.05 (90%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0
- Brodin – Soucy17:51
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Suter – Dumba18:04
xG 0.20–0.90 (18%)attempts 8–25goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).