Tue, Dec 10, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 311 | 015 | 36 | 632 |
| EDM | 012 | 113 | 211 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:15CARSebastian AhoAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 17:58CARNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Jake Gardiner, Lucas Wallmark · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–0
- P1 19:56CARRyan DzingelPPAssists: Nino Niederreiter · Snap, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 7:45EDMZack KassianAssists: Caleb Jones, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–1
- P3 2:51EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 5:40EDMZack KassianAssists: Connor McDavid, Joakim Nygard · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 9:27CARJordan MartinookGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Warren Foegele · Snap, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 12:16CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen · Tip-in, 0.16 xG5–3
- P3 15:19CARDougie HamiltonAssists: Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.01 xG6–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:32CARJulien Gauthier: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:15CARNino Niederreiter: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:40EDMDarnell Nurse: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:50EDMZack Kassian: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:52EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:21CARJaccob Slavin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:59CARTeuvo Teravainen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:48CARBrett Pesce: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
- P3 11:00EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:16EDMZack Kassian: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:18CARDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDzingel – Wallmark – Necas5:07
xG 0.46–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Gauthier4:52
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Foegele – Svechnikov7:28
xG 0.17–0.49 (25%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Teravainen – Aho8:12
xG 0.39–0.72 (35%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – van Riemsdyk6:31
xG 0.29–0.15 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Slavin11:21
xG 0.46–0.46 (50%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Pesce10:18
xG 0.52–1.30 (29%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – McDavid – Nygard7:52
xG 1.04–0.07 (94%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Archibald – Granlund3:59
xG 0.27–0.24 (52%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Neal – Russell – Haas5:41
xG 0.30–0.37 (45%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira – Draisaitl7:31
xG 0.11–0.59 (16%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear10:41
xG 1.03–0.41 (71%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom10:51
xG 0.48–0.65 (43%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Russell – Jones7:56
xG 0.09–0.64 (13%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).