Tue, Dec 10, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 012 | 08 | 19 | 129 |
| VGK | 012 | 316 | 29 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:27VGKReilly SmithPPAssists: Nate Schmidt, Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–1
- P2 11:24VGKDeryk EngellandGWGAssists: Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 19:16VGKWilliam KarlssonSHAssists: Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 3:17VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
- P3 12:59VGKRyan ReavesAssists: Paul Stastny, William Carrier · Slap, 0.07 xG0–5
- P3 19:33CHIDominik KubalikPPAssists: Alex Nylander, Adam Boqvist · Snap, 0.07 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:46VGKMark Stone: Interference2 min
- P2 5:30CHIDennis Gilbert: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:28VGKAlex Tuch: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:48CHIBrandon Saad: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:07VGKValentin Zykov: Interference2 min
- P3 18:10VGKChandler Stephenson: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestCarpenter – Nylander – Dach10:01
xG 0.66–0.19 (78%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Toews – Saad – Kubalik12:36
xG 1.01–0.70 (59%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Smith – Sikura – Kampf10:30
xG 0.10–0.45 (18%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Kane – Strome – DeBrincat12:40
xG 0.29–0.95 (24%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Gilbert3:57
xG 0.69–0.11 (86%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Boqvist8:12
xG 0.71–0.52 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Seabrook – Gilbert5:45
xG 0.03–0.06 (33%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:26
xG 0.91–0.40 (70%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek7:00
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson11:48
xG 0.49–0.76 (39%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Stastny – Zykov – Tuch11:39
xG 0.64–1.16 (35%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt15:08
xG 0.84–0.62 (58%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Theodore – Hague15:24
xG 0.46–0.81 (37%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Engelland – Holden15:13
xG 0.83–1.19 (41%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).