Tue, Dec 10, 2019·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
New York Rangers 1, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 014 | 05 | 111 | 130 |
| LAK | 111 | 110 | 15 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:49LAKDustin BrownAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Matt Roy · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 13:22LAKTyler ToffoliGWGAssists: Matt Roy, Michael Amadio · Backhand, 0.35 xG0–2
- P3 19:29NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Kaapo Kakko · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–2
- P3 19:45LAKAdrian KempeENAssists: Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:32LAKMatt Luff: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:08NYRChris Kreider: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:09NYRBrady Skjei: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:09LAKAustin Wagner: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:50LAKKurtis MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:50NYRBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:55LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestLemieux – Howden – Chytil2:19
xG 0.34–0.05 (88%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kakko4:23
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Panarin – Kakko7:44
xG 0.36–0.38 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – Strome – Chytil7:25
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Trouba13:53
xG 0.76–0.14 (84%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Fox2:11
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Staal – DeAngelo12:10
xG 0.19–0.52 (26%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Amadio – Luff6:03
xG 0.40–0.08 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Carter – Lewis – Clifford7:44
xG 0.18–0.02 (91%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo13:04
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Kempe – Wagner – Lizotte8:06
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Roy16:58
xG 1.19–0.39 (75%)attempts 25–11goals 2–0
- Doughty – Ryan16:18
xG 0.58–0.58 (50%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Doughty – Walker2:54
xG 0.06–0.07 (47%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).