Wed, Dec 11, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
Boston Bruins 2, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 18 | 015 | 19 | 232 |
| WSH | 08 | 26 | 111 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:36BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 4:35WSHT.J. OshieAssists: John Carlson · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 8:05WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Jakub Vrana · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 2:53BOSSean KuralySHAssists: Torey Krug · Tip-in, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 4:42WSHJohn CarlsonPPGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:14BOSZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:14WSHTom Wilson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:14WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:17WSHJakub Vrana: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:26BOSJoakim Nordstrom: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:31WSHBrendan Leipsic: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:48BOSChris Wagner: Interference2 min
- P2 17:28BOSCharlie Coyle: Holding2 min
- P3 0:19WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min
- P3 6:04WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:13BOSBrett Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:13WSHGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:06
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Wagner – Nordstrom – Kuraly7:00
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Krejci – Ritchie – DeBrusk7:50
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Coyle – Heinen – Bjork8:15
xG 0.17–0.37 (32%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – McAvoy5:21
xG 0.42–0.11 (80%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – Clifton5:49
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo4:39
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Leipsic – Hathaway5:19
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom2:11
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana9:20
xG 0.32–0.37 (47%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Eller – Panik6:10
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Siegenthaler6:39
xG 0.53–0.07 (88%)attempts 13–1goals 1–0
- Orlov – Jensen12:04
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Orlov – Gudas2:34
xG 0.07–0.06 (56%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).