Wed, Dec 11, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 08 | 017 | 18 | 133 |
| COL | 113 | 15 | 19 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:21COLMatt CalvertAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 16:05COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, J.T. Compher · Tip-in, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 2:31COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nazem Kadri, Calle Rosen · Snap, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 14:48PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek, Sean Couturier · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:02PHIMatt Niskanen: Interference2 min
- P1 7:40COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:54PHIRobert Hagg: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:07COLNathan MacKinnon: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Couturier14:39
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Stewart – Kase – Vorobyev6:52
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hayes – Laughton – Farabee11:28
xG 0.36–0.53 (41%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
- van Riemsdyk – Pitlick – Frost10:06
xG 0.07–0.61 (10%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Provorov15:21
xG 0.70–0.42 (63%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Hagg12:51
xG 0.16–0.28 (37%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Braun – Sanheim14:59
xG 0.56–0.74 (43%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Nichushkin – Bellemare8:11
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Calvert – Nieto – Bellemare2:26
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kadri – Landeskog – Rantanen11:11
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Nieto – Compher – Jost6:25
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Graves15:22
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Girard17:06
xG 0.97–0.59 (62%)attempts 19–19goals 0–1
- Barberio – Rosen11:00
xG 0.58–0.46 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).