Thu, Dec 12, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Vegas Golden Knights 2, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 213 | 08 | 08 | 229 |
| STL | 18 | 317 | 04 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:52STLMackenzie MacEachernAssists: Jacob de la Rose, Oskar Sundqvist · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 5:17VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 12:28VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Ryan Reaves, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 1:34STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 14:53STLJaden SchwartzGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 15:32STLRobert ThomasAssists: Colton Parayko, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 16:49STLCarl Gunnarsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:01STLAlex Pietrangelo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:22STLJustin Faulk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson13:28
xG 0.73–0.33 (69%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek8:43
xG 0.63–0.25 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Stastny – Zykov – Tuch8:55
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Tuch2:33
xG 0.23–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Theodore15:29
xG 0.89–0.28 (76%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Engelland – Holden15:23
xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- McNabb – Schmidt15:43
xG 0.78–0.79 (50%)attempts 19–15goals 1–3
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Schwartz – Kyrou11:42
xG 0.60–0.31 (66%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – MacEachern – de la Rose9:43
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Perron – Bozak – O'Reilly11:40
xG 0.09–0.57 (13%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Barbashev – Thomas8:55
xG 0.20–1.01 (16%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Dunn9:49
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo3:31
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Faulk2:33
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).