Thu, Dec 12, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Edmonton Oilers 5, Minnesota Wild 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 110 | 314 | 533 |
| MIN | 27 | 210 | 29 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:00EDMOscar KlefbomAssists: Sam Gagner, James Neal · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 12:35MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Carson Soucy, Luke Kunin · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 19:42MINJason ZuckerAssists: Eric Staal, Mats Zuccarello · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 2:00EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 3:46MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Ryan Hartman, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 7:50MINRyan DonatoAssists: Carson Soucy · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 10:43EDMGaetan HaasAssists: Adam Larsson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 12:49EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ethan Bear, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- P3 15:13MINEric StaalAssists: Jason Zucker, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.06 xG4–5
- P3 16:21MINLuke KuninGWGAssists: Jordan Greenway, Joel Eriksson Ek · Snap, 0.12 xG4–6
- P3 19:11EDMJames NealAssists: Zack Kassian, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–6
Penalties (5)
- P2 0:49MINCarson Soucy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:28MINJordan Greenway: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:28EDMDarnell Nurse: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:19MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Holding2 min
- P2 17:53EDMOscar Klefbom: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Donato won the faceoff against Haas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Gagner – Haas12:03
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid10:43
xG 0.40–0.33 (55%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl6:14
xG 0.07–0.04 (62%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins – Nygard8:07
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom19:38
xG 0.72–0.35 (67%)attempts 23–14goals 2–1
- Russell – Jones11:57
xG 0.08–0.32 (21%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bear14:54
xG 0.45–0.73 (38%)attempts 17–17goals 1–3
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Rask – Hartman9:49
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Kunin12:34
xG 0.46–0.34 (58%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Parise – Fiala – Donato9:20
xG 0.61–0.53 (54%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Staal – Zuccarello – Zucker16:49
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Soucy17:10
xG 0.89–0.37 (71%)attempts 19–17goals 4–0
- Hunt – Menell13:29
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Suter – Dumba20:20
xG 0.62–0.60 (51%)attempts 17–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).