Thu, Dec 12, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
Los Angeles Kings 2, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 113 | 18 | 06 | 227 |
| ANA | 015 | 05 | 117 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:31LAKMatt LuffAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Matt Roy · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
- P2 4:27LAKJeff CarterGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Tyler Toffoli · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 5:12ANADerek GrantAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Maxime Comtois · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:25ANAMaxime Comtois: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:32LAKAlex Iafallo: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:09ANADerek Grant: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:21ANAAdam Henrique: Holding2 min
- P2 10:20LAKKurtis MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:20ANANicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:48LAKJeff Carter: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:57LAKAustin Wagner: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Grant
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Amadio – Luff5:11
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Kempe – Wagner – Lizotte7:29
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo8:01
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Carter – Lewis – Clifford8:04
xG 0.17–0.46 (27%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Ryan16:51
xG 0.74–0.24 (75%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Hutton – Roy15:57
xG 0.64–1.20 (35%)attempts 9–25goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Carrick – Rakell6:30
xG 0.92–0.01 (99%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Terry5:50
xG 0.34–0.02 (93%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Henrique – Kase – Steel4:08
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Rowney5:57
xG 0.16–0.17 (50%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Gudbranson15:25
xG 1.00–0.22 (82%)attempts 21–6goals 0–0
- Holzer – Mahura11:34
xG 0.68–0.56 (55%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Manson – Lindholm17:44
xG 0.70–0.86 (45%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).