Fri, Dec 13, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Dallas Stars 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 07 | 216 | 07 | 12 | 332 |
| DAL | 115 | 07 | 17 | 01 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:14DALTaylor FedunAssists: Alexander Radulov, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 4:20VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 14:41VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 14:49DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 0:51VGKMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Shea Theodore, Mark Stone · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 12:04DALBlake Comeau: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:19VGKShea Theodore: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:13VGKReilly Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:33DALTaylor Fedun: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson11:36
xG 0.58–0.23 (71%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:55
xG 0.49–0.53 (48%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek8:34
xG 0.36–0.63 (36%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Stastny – Zykov – Tuch9:38
xG 0.15–0.44 (25%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Engelland – Holden11:53
xG 0.35–0.33 (52%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- McNabb – Schmidt16:41
xG 0.57–0.70 (45%)attempts 15–20goals 1–1
- Merrill – Theodore15:47
xG 0.34–0.75 (31%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Hintz2:45
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Radulov – Hintz7:24
xG 0.35–0.11 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Perry – Dickinson – Gurianov6:58
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Janmark7:14
xG 0.45–0.41 (52%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Lindell2:11
xG 0.22–0.04 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Fedun – Oleksiak5:27
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Fedun – Lindell7:39
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).