Fri, Dec 13, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
New Jersey Devils 1, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 013 | 09 | 116 | 138 |
| COL | 16 | 119 | 112 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:37COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 7:56COLValeri NichushkinGWGAssists: Mark Barberio · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 15:48NJDMirco MuellerAssists: Pavel Zacha, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 19:28COLNathan MacKinnonENAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:53NJDJesper Boqvist: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:31NJDMichael McLeod: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:28COLNazem Kadri: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:03COLSamuel Girard: Interference2 min
- P2 8:11NJDP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:58NJDDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:23COLGabriel Landeskog: Holding2 min
- P3 6:15NJDBlake Coleman: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:56COLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Coleman – Gusev7:45
xG 0.87–0.18 (83%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Bratt – Hischier8:52
xG 0.33–0.39 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Wood – McLeod – Boqvist6:36
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Zacha – Hughes6:59
xG 0.17–0.59 (22%)attempts 5–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Butcher11:33
xG 0.73–0.58 (55%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
- Greene – Subban8:43
xG 0.22–0.44 (33%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Severson – Mueller11:47
xG 0.29–0.72 (29%)attempts 6–20goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Compher – Jost5:30
xG 0.47–0.05 (90%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Calvert – Nichushkin – Bellemare8:05
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Donskoi – Burakovsky – MacKinnon7:27
xG 0.33–0.43 (43%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Kadri – Landeskog – Rantanen8:18
xG 0.11–0.82 (11%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Girard9:35
xG 0.69–0.49 (59%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Barberio – Rosen9:34
xG 0.45–0.39 (53%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Graves – Zadorov2:18
xG 0.04–0.01 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).