Sat, Dec 14, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 110 | 08 | 220 | 03 | 341 |
| OTT | 28 | 112 | 05 | 12 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:16OTTAnthony DuclairAssists: Logan Brown, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 4:53CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Ryan Murray, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 12:05OTTAnthony DuclairAssists: Artem Anisimov, Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 8:17OTTConnor BrownUnassisted · Snap, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 4:44CBJAlexandre TexierAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Eric Robinson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 11:31CBJAlexandre TexierAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Eric Robinson · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 1:56OTTAnthony DuclairPPGWGAssists: Thomas Chabot, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Slap, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:21OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:21CBJJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:58OTTConnor Brown: Holding2 min
- P2 10:52CBJSeth Jones: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:01OTTAnthony Duclair: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:43CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Interference2 min
- P2 16:33OTTColin White: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:52OTTTyler Ennis: Hooking2 min
- OT 1:40CBJAlexander Wennberg: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubois – Texier – Robinson3:05
xG 0.45–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–1goals 2–0
- Foligno – Atkinson – Wennberg5:43
xG 0.32–0.06 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Atkinson – Jenner5:50
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Jenner – Bjorkstrand6:33
xG 0.18–0.21 (47%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Jones3:43
xG 0.47–0.13 (79%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Savard – Murray9:36
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Peeke11:10
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Brown – Tkachuk12:25
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Ennis – White6:47
xG 0.01–0.15 (8%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Tierney – Duclair7:16
xG 0.09–0.24 (26%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Paul – Brown – Davidsson3:25
xG 0.05–0.23 (17%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Borowiecki3:25
xG 0.44–0.07 (87%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Chabot12:55
xG 0.35–0.05 (87%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Goloubef – Borowiecki2:29
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).