Sat, Dec 14, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Buffalo Sabres 2, New York Islanders 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 010 | 110 | 113 | 02 | 235 |
| NYI | 19 | 07 | 18 | 12 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:11NYIMichael Dal ColleAssists: Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 6:11BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 4:50NYIJordan EberleAssists: Brock Nelson, Anthony Beauvillier · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 18:14BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 3:04NYIAnthony BeauvillierGWGAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:22BUFMarco Scandella: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:22NYIJosh Bailey: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:22NYIJosh Bailey: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:37NYIBrock Nelson: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 8:04BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Holding2 min
- P2 10:53BUFEvan Rodrigues: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:17BUFMarcus Johansson: Interference2 min
- P3 16:27NYIMathew Barzal: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Olofsson – Eichel14:40
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Johansson – Vesey – Asplund5:53
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Johansson – Skinner – Vesey3:59
xG 0.02–0.01 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons9:46
xG 0.09–0.17 (34%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen14:38
xG 0.36–0.19 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin2:09
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Montour – Dahlin13:23
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Nelson – Beauvillier5:57
xG 0.41–0.04 (91%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Nelson – Dal Colle – Beauvillier2:38
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Bailey – Johnston – Barzal8:10
xG 0.18–0.09 (68%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:26
xG 0.14–0.09 (60%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Dobson10:45
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock13:19
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Toews12:11
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).