Sat, Dec 14, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Calgary Flames 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 04 | 218 | 29 | 431 |
| CGY | 012 | 07 | 013 | 032 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:35CARBrock McGinnGWGAssists: Jordan Martinook, Julien Gauthier · Slap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 13:40CARDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 15:05CARWarren FoegeleSHAssists: Jordan Martinook, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
- P3 19:57CARWarren FoegeleENAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:16CARMartin Necas: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:50CGYMark Jankowski: Interference2 min
- P2 12:35CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P2 13:05CARJordan Staal: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:13CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:15CARMartin Necas: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:37CARHaydn Fleury: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:55CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:45CGYSean Monahan: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:03CARLucas Wallmark: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Foegele – Svechnikov10:05
xG 0.95–0.12 (88%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Dzingel – Wallmark – Necas8:43
xG 0.03–0.03 (45%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Gauthier8:42
xG 0.28–0.35 (45%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Teravainen – Aho9:42
xG 0.41–0.61 (40%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Pesce10:36
xG 0.89–0.17 (84%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Fleury7:30
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce2:07
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk9:43
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube9:50
xG 0.13–0.24 (35%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Frolik – Rieder – Jankowski8:35
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Backlund – Gaudreau – Monahan10:26
xG 0.39–0.94 (30%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Andersson – Kylington11:42
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson2:35
xG 0.09–0.18 (33%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin11:19
xG 0.64–0.91 (41%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).