Sat, Dec 14, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 4, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 011 | 48 | 03 | 422 |
| NSH | 09 | 113 | 016 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:04NSHAustin WatsonAssists: Dan Hamhuis · Deflected, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 4:46DALBlake ComeauSHAssists: Jason Dickinson, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 6:40DALRoope HintzGWGAssists: Justin Dowling, Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 12:18DALJamie OleksiakAssists: Alexander Radulov, Tyler Seguin · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 16:09DALAndrew CoglianoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:49NSHCraig Smith: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:46NSHMatt Irwin: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:33DALAndrew Cogliano: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 10:40DALAndrew Cogliano: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 16:08DALJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin11:00
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Perry – Dickinson – Gurianov7:04
xG 0.19–0.37 (34%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa9:26
xG 0.15–0.42 (26%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Dowling – Hintz9:03
xG 0.01–0.50 (2%)attempts 2–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Heiskanen13:04
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Sekera – Polak12:50
xG 0.19–0.33 (37%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell18:23
xG 0.48–0.81 (37%)attempts 6–29goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestWatson – Blackwell – Trenin8:43
xG 0.61–0.00 (100%)attempts 18–1goals 1–0
- Turris – Duchene – Smith8:35
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Forsberg10:32
xG 0.32–0.03 (92%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Bonino – Grimaldi – Sissons7:31
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis19:34
xG 0.97–0.72 (57%)attempts 21–11goals 0–2
- Hamhuis – Fabbro13:49
xG 0.42–0.17 (71%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Weber – Irwin12:23
xG 0.45–0.25 (65%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).