Sat, Dec 14, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Detroit Red Wings 2, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 05 | 18 | 220 |
| MTL | 012 | 010 | 121 | 143 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:21DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Dylan Larkin, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P3 7:42DETMike GreenPPGWGAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P3 19:13MTLTomas TatarAssists: Shea Weber, Joel Armia · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:28MTLBrendan Gallagher: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:53DETLuke Glendening: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:41MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Interference2 min
- P2 11:39MTLJeff Petry: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:39DETAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:39DETAnthony Mantha: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:39MTLJeff Petry: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:42MTLRiley Barber: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:28MTLBrendan Gallagher: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Filppula – Mantha – Zadina6:31
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Athanasiou10:44
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Erne5:35
xG 0.06–0.27 (18%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Fabbri11:25
xG 0.24–0.58 (29%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Daley – Hronek14:00
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Hronek2:13
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Bowey2:26
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestWeal – Cousins – Suzuki9:30
xG 0.58–0.07 (90%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault10:43
xG 0.51–0.16 (77%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Armia – Lehkonen – Domi8:28
xG 0.31–0.03 (92%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Thompson – Barber – Poehling6:21
xG 0.13–0.05 (74%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak10:58
xG 0.58–0.10 (85%)attempts 20–3goals 0–0
- Weber – Chiarot13:04
xG 0.65–0.26 (72%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Fleury5:34
xG 0.22–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).