Sat, Dec 14, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Kings 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 215 | 012 | 215 | 00 | 0 | 442 |
| PIT | 010 | 25 | 26 | 06 | 1 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:08LAKAustin WagnerAssists: Adrian Kempe, Blake Lizotte · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 18:00LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Sean Walker, Matt Luff · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 3:31PITBryan RustPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.24 xG2–1
- P2 17:36PITBryan RustAssists: Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 9:26PITTeddy BluegerAssists: Bryan Rust, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 11:58PITJack JohnsonAssists: Jared McCann, Jake Guentzel · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–4
- P3 15:00LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Jeff Carter, Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 16:23LAKMichael AmadioAssists: Sean Walker, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PIT Jake Guentzel stopped
- 2. LAK Michael Amadio stopped
- 3. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 4. LAK Tyler Toffoli stopped
- 5. PIT Jared McCann stopped
- 6. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
- 7. PIT Bryan Rust scored
- 8. LAK Adrian Kempe stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:40LAKAlex Iafallo: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:18LAKKyle Clifford: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:51PITZachary Aston-Reese: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:34PITJack Johnson: Interference2 min
- P2 16:12LAKTyler Toffoli: Holding2 min
- P2 16:41LAKJoakim Ryan: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:35PITAlex Galchenyuk: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:05PITSam Lafferty: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:05LAKAdrian Kempe: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:58PITJoseph Blandisi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:58LAKAustin Wagner: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:29PITKris Letang: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKempe – Wagner – Lizotte5:31
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Amadio – Luff3:58
xG 0.11–0.10 (54%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo11:31
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Carter – Lewis – Clifford6:49
xG 0.34–0.53 (39%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Ryan15:14
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Roy – Walker2:07
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Hutton – Roy12:12
xG 0.47–0.48 (49%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestRust – Guentzel – Simon3:30
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Noesen – Blandisi – Lafferty5:57
xG 0.30–0.32 (49%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Rust – Guentzel – McCann7:22
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
- McCann – Aston-Reese – Kahun4:21
xG 0.01–0.16 (7%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Schultz15:07
xG 0.46–0.63 (42%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- Letang – Marino14:46
xG 0.31–0.91 (26%)attempts 7–18goals 1–3
- Ruhwedel – Pettersson9:17
xG 0.01–0.71 (2%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).