Sat, Dec 14, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 15 | 03 | 010 | 118 |
| MIN | 27 | 18 | 113 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 6:16MINZach PariseAssists: Kevin Fiala, Ryan Donato · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 7:51MINEric StaalGWGAssists: Jonas Brodin, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 9:47MINEric StaalUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 17:46MINCarson SoucyENAssists: Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 18:18PHITyler Pitlick: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:57PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:55PHIMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:19MINBrennan Menell: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:06MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:06PHIJoel Farabee: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:50MINKevin Fiala: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:42PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:14PHIChris Stewart: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:47MINKevin Fiala: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Laughton – Farabee4:52
xG 0.15–0.02 (89%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Frost3:25
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Stewart – van Riemsdyk – Vorobyev2:31
xG 0.04–0.06 (37%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Pitlick – Frost3:53
xG 0.04–0.12 (25%)attempts 1–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Provorov – Myers2:11
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Provorov11:43
xG 0.13–0.62 (17%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Braun – Sanheim13:32
xG 0.21–0.78 (21%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestParise – Fiala – Donato8:00
xG 1.01–0.09 (92%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Staal – Zuccarello – Zucker8:53
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Kunin7:28
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Rask – Hartman6:13
xG 0.01–0.03 (28%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba15:11
xG 0.98–0.37 (73%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Hunt – Menell11:52
xG 0.65–0.11 (85%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Brodin – Soucy14:57
xG 0.37–0.20 (66%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).