Sun, Dec 15, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Winnipeg Jets 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 010 | 211 | 111 | 332 |
| WPG | 28 | 49 | 17 | 724 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:57WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Jack Roslovic, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 11:49WPGLuca SbisaAssists: Neal Pionk, Adam Lowry · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 4:15PHIMatt NiskanenPPAssists: Kevin Hayes, James van Riemsdyk · Backhand, 0.28 xG1–2
- P2 10:34WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 13:15WPGMark ScheifelePPGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Neal Pionk · Slap, 0.19 xG1–4
- P2 14:35WPGLogan ShawAssists: Nicholas Shore, Gabriel Bourque · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–5
- P2 14:51WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–6
- P2 19:32PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Ivan Provorov, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–6
- P3 6:43WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Neal Pionk · Deflected, 0.22 xG2–7
- P3 9:41PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.05 xG3–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:31PHIMorgan Frost: Embellishment2 min
- P1 5:31WPGJack Roslovic: Holding2 min
- P2 3:14WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:03PHIJoel Farabee: Interference5 min · PPG
- P2 9:03PHIJoel Farabee: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 2:19PHITravis Sanheim: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:35PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Farabee6:57
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Aube-Kubel – Frost4:58
xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Stewart – van Riemsdyk – Frost2:54
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Aube-Kubel3:52
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Provorov15:22
xG 1.45–0.71 (67%)attempts 17–15goals 1–2
- Braun – Sanheim15:38
xG 0.57–0.68 (46%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Hagg14:30
xG 0.62–0.79 (44%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestBourque – Shaw – Shore6:33
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Roslovic10:55
xG 0.71–0.70 (50%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Lowry – Shore – Copp3:10
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Laine12:14
xG 0.69–0.88 (44%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Bitetto – Beaulieu11:56
xG 0.56–0.57 (50%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Poolman – Morrissey14:42
xG 0.47–0.97 (33%)attempts 14–18goals 0–2
- Sbisa – Pionk14:19
xG 0.62–1.28 (33%)attempts 10–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).